Analytics
Resolved Yes on 24 Dec 2023.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 68% on 20 Dec 2023. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 20 Dec 2023 to 24 Dec 2023, the highest close was 99.5% on 23 Dec 2023 and the lowest 68% on 20 Dec 2023. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 99.5% on 23 Dec 2023. $3.92K traded over the market's life.
1 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 25, 9:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 20 Dec 2023 – 24 Dec 2023
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Dec 2023 | 68.0% |
| 24 Dec 2023 | 99.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HarvardInsider | No | 205 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the JN.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for the most COVID-19 cases by proportion in the United States according to CDC's Nowcast at the time of its next release (after 12/9/23). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Nowcast Estimates in the United States for 12/23/23 as soon as released (% Total column in graph here https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). This market will resolve based on the initial information release by the CDC regardless of later information updates. If the CDC stops reporting figures for COVID-19 or ceases to utilize the Nowcast before the end of this market, it will resolve 50-50.
Resolution source: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/jn1-most-common-covid-variant-in-us-by-dec-23
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