JD Vance favorability >40% by Friday Oct 11?

politicsResolved

No, settled Oct 13, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$69.5K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 13, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 13 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 18% on 3 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2024 to 13 Oct 2024, the highest close was 18% on 3 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 13 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 10.5% on 6 Oct 2024. $69.55K traded over the market's life.

30 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 14, 11:22 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 3 Oct 2024 – 13 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Oct 2024	18.0%
13 Oct 2024	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Superb-Prostrate	Yes	62.5
AppealToReason	Yes	38.97
g324g324g	Yes	20
Cosmic Oracle A889	Yes	6.23

10 of 30 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if J.D. Vances's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is 40.1% or higher for for any day between Oct 2 (inclusive) and October 11, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/jd-vance/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. The box that 538 uses to calculate the difference using different precision is not relevant for this market. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market may only resolve to "No" once the first data point after October 11, 2024 is published. If no such data point is available by October 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.