Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 1 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 1 Aug 2026 to 3 Sep 2026, the highest close was 50% on 1 Aug 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 3 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 38% on 5 Aug 2026. $418.2 traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 4, 9:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 1 Aug 2026 – 3 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 3 Sep 2026 | 3.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sanduspace | Yes | 100 |
| Unique-Reindeer | Yes | 26.32 |
| gonnakilmyslf | Yes | 21 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Choukine in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Choukine will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-choukine-by
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | Yes | 14 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| overmind-cash-machine | Yes | 7.33 |
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