Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 1 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 1 Jul 2026 to 3 Aug 2026, the highest close was 7.5% on 1 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2026. $66.55K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 1 Jul 2026 – 3 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | 7.5% |
| 3 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PolyJaguar | Yes | 1.35K |
| LukeAlpha | Yes | 300 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| doujiao | Yes | 90 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-beirut-by-475
| 76dgdf | Yes | 76.52 |
| Sandy-Birch | Yes | 54.38 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 52 |
| niandoubao | No | 48 |
| MKAP-092 | Yes | 19.09 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 15 |
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