Analytics
Resolved Yes on 12 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 63%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 20 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2026 to 12 May 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63% on 12 May 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 18 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 34.5% on 21 Mar 2026. $781.91K traded over the market's life.
320 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 13, 1:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 20 Mar 2026 – 12 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 23.5% |
| 12 May 2026 | 63.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MajidJavadi | No | 13.28K |
| ethBELIVER | No | 5.9K |
| sj1337 | No | 2.6K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count. A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing. Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify. Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-cross-the-litani-river-by-june-30
| No |
| 2.56K |
| JoeBlack01 | No | 2.34K |
| troim | No | 2K |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | No | 2K |
| moskvich | No | 1.78K |
| Athletic-Sender | No | 1.25K |
| SUPERNOVA- | No | 1.1K |
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