Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 2 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 276 daily closes on record from 2 Apr 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 17.8% on 6 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 12 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.9 points up, to 17.8% on 6 Sep 2025. $283.83K traded over the market's life.
116 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 276 points, 2 Apr 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Apr 2025 | 11.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey between April 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-turkey-military-clash-by
| nasos.pap | Yes | 428.61 |
| sadrax666 | Yes | 416.58 |
| concertao | Yes | 396.85 |
| Violet Vector A145 | Yes | 285.71 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 280 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 254 |
| ad-min96 | Yes | 232.56 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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