Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 1.4% on 22 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 27 Apr 2026, the highest close was 1.5% on 23 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Apr 2026. $18.8K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 28, 4:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 27 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 1.4% |
| 27 Apr 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Itchy-Chives | Yes | 298.69 |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | Yes | 164.82 |
| I.rashid.chohan | Yes | 142.86 |
| Brainon | Yes | 116.95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-diplomatic-meeting-by
| owlkosmos21 | Yes | 64.02 |
| Cemoneymaker | Yes | 60.39 |
| forget7 | Yes | 60 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Fitting-Insight | Yes | 49.04 |
| MyLastStand | Yes | 48.33 |
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