Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 4 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 4 Mar 2026 to 1 Apr 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17% on 7 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 11.5% on 12 Mar 2026. $376.67K traded over the market's life.
67 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 10:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 4 Mar 2026 – 1 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2026 | 16.5% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| oak | Yes | 1.28K |
| ForgiveMe | Yes | 1.25K |
| Original-Typewriter | Yes | 995.65 |
| Ranioph | Yes | 714.29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by
| Fearless-Freon | Yes | 510 |
| Flowery-Witness | Yes | 400 |
| edouardT | Yes | 392.43 |
| Bland-Creative | Yes | 371.47 |
| Menaga | Yes | 333.74 |
| Vacant-Hand | Yes | 272.73 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
