Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Feb 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 11 Feb 2025. Before it settled, the high was 35.5% on 12 Feb 2025 and the low 0.7% on 16 Feb 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 13% on 13 Feb 2025. $368.17K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 17, 7:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 11 Feb 2025 – 16 Feb 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2025 | 13.5% |
| 16 Feb 2025 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| joetarded | Yes | 3.84K |
| Bassmaker | Yes | 1.4K |
| predictionator | Yes | 1.34K |
| TomP69 | Yes | 1.31K |
| Mattd | Yes | 928.37 |
| Albert198200 | Yes | 326.25 |
| Xfactor-256 | Yes | 305.78 |
| Hester27 | Yes | 215.96 |
| Unfit-Almanac | Yes | 212.78 |
| N-9-6 | Yes | 179.02 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
President Donald Trump said on Monday that if all the hostages held in Gaza are not returned by Saturday at noon he would propose canceling the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and letting "all hell break loose." (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-gaza-ceasefire-should-end-saturday-if-hostages-not-released-2025-02-10/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancelation of the ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by February 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-saturday
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