Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 7% on 11 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 11 Oct 2025 to 1 Nov 2025, the highest close was 15.5% on 17 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 7.5% on 21 Oct 2025. $2.5M traded over the market's life.
541 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 11 Oct 2025 – 1 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2025 | 7.0% |
| 1 Nov 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ConciergeofPredictions | Yes | 27.89K |
| WillnotHappen | Yes | 17.79K |
| percaddict | Yes | 14.18K |
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-cancelled-by-october-31
| Whome | Yes | 12.5K |
| rickonmybody | Yes | 12.11K |
| asdokasjk | Yes | 10.23K |
| epg | Yes | 10.19K |
| 1727266272 | Yes | 9.1K |
| Tamadosun | Yes | 8.45K |
| ilovemalort | Yes | 8K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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