Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 20 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 32% on 27 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 23.5% on 28 Aug 2024. $244.51K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 5:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 20 Aug 2024 – 1 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2024 | 28.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| JoeyMoose | Yes | 333.33 |
| UnknownFedWatcher | Yes | 170 |
| ER02CB | Yes | 119.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last at least 24 hours and have begun before the resolution date. For example, if the ceasefire begins on September 30, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 24 hours. This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media source
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-before-october
| Yes |
| 90 |
| divyanthj | Yes | 55.56 |
| nastrudomas | Yes | 55.56 |
| Plankalkuel | Yes | 26.32 |
| Sopattle | No | 1.06 |
| Miniature-Luncheonette | Yes | 0.33 |
| Faithful-Mineral | Yes | 0.33 |
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