Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 27 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 23.5% on 27 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 16% on 28 Aug 2025. $1.15M traded over the market's life.
208 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 8:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Aug 2025 – 1 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2025 | 23.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Saleinak | Yes | 46.71K |
| WhatAmIDoing | Yes | 20K |
| Sauron1 | Yes | 14.67K |
| alexbond19 | Yes | 11.2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iran-by-september-30
| 00TF | Yes | 5.78K |
| rapeygroyper | Yes | 5.13K |
| sirdenal | Yes | 4.32K |
| 0xPolymarketAnon | Yes | 4.03K |
| FlaSh | Yes | 4.02K |
| Roee | Yes | 3.03K |
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