Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 26 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 26 Jun 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 15.5% on 26 Jun 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Jul 2025. $83.26K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 26 Jun 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jun 2025 | 15.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AION5101 | Yes | 508.67 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| Ehbrecht77 | Yes | 357.38 |
| Linus1995 | Yes | 307.35 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-iran-before-july
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 299.96 |
| anaconda3808 | Yes | 238.32 |
| LuckyInlet1315 | Yes | 72.2 |
| Samarvel | Yes | 52.63 |
| keyholder | Yes | 50 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 48.98 |
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