Analytics
Resolved Yes on 18 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 89.1%. Yes opened at 68.5% on 16 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 16 Oct 2025 to 18 Oct 2025, the highest close was 89.1% on 18 Oct 2025 and the lowest 68.5% on 16 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 81.5% on 17 Oct 2025. $352.7K traded over the market's life.
55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 19, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 16 Oct 2025 – 18 Oct 2025, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2025 | 68.5% |
| 18 Oct 2025 | 89.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Arthurooooooo | No | 16K |
| Thebigbig | No | 5.96K |
| daddyjerome | No | 3.6K |
| Ttt2323 | No | 2K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil between October 14, 6:00 PM ET, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be credible video or photo evidence, or reporting from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, BBC, Der Spiegel, DW, Le Monde, Sky News, Al Jazeera, The Kyiv Independent and The Guardian may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-gaza-by
| LukeGamma | No | 752.36 |
| lissartter | No | 730.14 |
| 213123sdc | No | 700 |
| JD06. | No | 459.24 |
| dugouxiaoxiang | No | 458.33 |
| Far-Flung-Filth | No | 333.33 |
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