Analytics
Resolved Yes on 14 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 22.5%. Yes opened at 58% on 11 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 11 Oct 2025 to 14 Oct 2025, the highest close was 58% on 11 Oct 2025 and the lowest 22.5% on 14 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 42.5% on 12 Oct 2025. $255.56K traded over the market's life.
45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 16, 12:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 11 Oct 2025 – 14 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2025 | 58.0% |
| 14 Oct 2025 | 22.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Grimy-Plain | No | 50K |
| Zigzag-Sanity | No | 10K |
| Outgoing-Howitzer | No | 7.95K |
| hasidm | No | 7.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil between October 10, 11:30 AM ET, and October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strikes-gaza-by-october-17
| CallMeBaba | No | 5K |
| jaro2k | No | 5K |
| Nemaa | No | 4K |
| Fluffy-Tomtom | No | 3K |
| CoronaBeerious | No | 1.5K |
| oxtest | No | 1.14K |
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