Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 56.5% on 26 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 26 Sep 2025 to 2 Oct 2025, the highest close was 56.5% on 26 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 2 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 35 points down, to 21.5% on 27 Sep 2025. $37.05K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 8:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 26 Sep 2025 – 2 Oct 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2025 | 56.5% |
| 2 Oct 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Tony189 | Yes | 212.6 |
| lissartter | Yes | 129.62 |
| Sjurebass | Yes | 65.07 |
| MrGoy | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemen soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate between September 25, 12:30 PM ET and October 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-yemen-by-october-1
| Munshot | Yes | 30 |
| theforecaster | Yes | 30 |
| Yearly-Bachelor | No | 23.99 |
| Lavish-Monopoly | Yes | 20 |
| pouya63 | Yes | 15.29 |
| haimsh | Yes | 14.41 |
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