Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 10 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 10 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 11.5% on 11 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 6% on 12 Sep 2025. $36.28K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 26, 10:53 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 10 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2025 | 7.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| lissartter | Yes | 387.48 |
| WhoMeNever | Yes | 260 |
| Scholarly-Pence | Yes | 151.52 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 133 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on any Gulf state's soil or any Gulf state's official embassy or consulate between September 9, 2 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact a Gulf state's ground territory, embassy, or consulate. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a Gulf state's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-gulf-state-by-september-30
| Demanding-Pelt | Yes | 130.03 |
| irio27 | Yes | 65.97 |
| GUILLEMTC775 | Yes | 62.5 |
| Dumblebee | Yes | 60.61 |
| supersand | Yes | 55.56 |
| linkengongyuan | Yes | 40 |
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