Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 51% on 27 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 98 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 51% on 27 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 51% on 30 Sep 2025. $6.95K traded over the market's life.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 98 points, 27 Sep 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | 51.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SneakySquids | Yes | 125 |
| S888 | Yes | 100 |
| rododendron | Yes | 53.28 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on any Gulf state's soil or any Gulf state's official embassy or consulate between September 9, 2 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact a Gulf state's ground territory, embassy, or consulate. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a Gulf state's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-gulf-state-by-september-30
| Yes |
| 46.33 |
| Shipoo | Yes | 45.78 |
| Kanp | Yes | 43.97 |
| gazzy123 | Yes | 40 |
| Rlso | Yes | 38.34 |
| Owwwnn | Yes | 35.64 |
| Weak-Reveal | Yes | 35.58 |
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