Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 88.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 3 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 3 Jun 2025 to 13 Jun 2025, the highest close was 88.5% on 13 Jun 2025 and the lowest 50.5% on 3 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 88.5% on 13 Jun 2025. $155.74K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 14, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 3 Jun 2025 – 13 Jun 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jun 2025 | 50.5% |
| 13 Jun 2025 | 88.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GayPride | No | 3.61K |
| WhiteLivesMatter | No | 1.5K |
| vlixn | No | 843.79 |
| mautorres97 | No | 418.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between March 31, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iran-before-2026
| qwertzu | No | 100 |
| Ales143 | No | 40.74 |
| trump.slonic | Yes | 0.01 |
| 726Edmonchuk | Yes | 0.01 |
| SYSY.CN | Yes | 0.01 |
| GaySanta | Yes | 0.01 |
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