Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 39% on 20 Mar 2024. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2024 to 1 May 2024, the highest close was 46% on 29 Mar 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2024. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 38.5% on 9 Apr 2024. $129.29K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 7, 11:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 20 Mar 2024 – 1 May 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2024 | 39.0% |
| 1 May 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| meshuga | Yes | 3.02K |
| Ferran | Yes | 181.82 |
| binkybill248 | Yes | 90.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM Palestine Standard Time (UTC +2), the New York Times or WSJ reports that Israel has initiated a ground offensive within Rafah. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Reports of small raids or special operations will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source of this market will be reporting from the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-offensive-in-rafah-by-april-30
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 60.57 |
| israel | Yes | 27.78 |
| Penroll | No | 1.3 |
| syncope | Yes | 0.01 |
