Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 18.5% on 16 Jun 2025. Before it settled, across the 201 daily closes on record from 16 Jun 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 18.5% on 16 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 11.5% on 17 Jun 2025. $75.11K traded over the market's life.
84 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 201 points, 16 Jun 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jun 2025 | 18.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| WhiteLivesMatter | Yes | 2.99K |
| Ronenio | Yes | 903.32 |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 599.96 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, the Israeli government officially and unambiguously acknowledges that it possesses nuclear weapons by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Leaked documents, anonymous sources, or reports from non-Israeli officials will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-confirms-it-has-nuclear-weapons-in-2025
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 439 |
| Our-Destination | Yes | 428.57 |
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 331.26 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 329 |
| GarethSki | Yes | 263.16 |
| braconier | Yes | 209.64 |
| MGar | Yes | 194.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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