Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 16.5%. Yes opened at 7% on 13 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 13 Apr 2026 to 15 Apr 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 16.5% on 15 Apr 2026 and the lowest 7% on 13 Apr 2026. $1.42M traded over the market's life.
155 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 17, 9:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 13 Apr 2026 – 15 Apr 2026, chart shows 5%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2026 | 7.0% |
| 15 Apr 2026 | 16.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 881112 | No | 38.72K |
| Skinny-Class | No | 18.9K |
| 0x2585e7022dc2075a108204bIxc08cea8d13b60a | No | 11.07K |
| mrsteve1748 | No | 6.24K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, or the Israeli military publicly and definitively announces a halt to the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying announcements must unambiguously indicate a halt to offensive ground operations as well as a halt to military strikes, such as airstrikes, artillery fire, or similar offensive strikes against targets in Lebanon. Statements that unambiguously imply both the cessation of offensive ground operations and strikes may suffice even if not stated explicitly (e.g, “The Israeli Defense Forces have concluded their operations in Lebanon”). An announcement of a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory is not required. Announcements that do not indicate a halt to the offensive military operations as a whole (e.g., referring only to a specific phase, type of operation, or geographic subset of operations) will not qualify. Qualifying announcements must clearly indicate that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon has concluded, is halted, or will conclude or be halted on a specific date, even if only for a defined, limited period. A temporary ceasefire agreement will qualify if it explicitly indicates that the Israeli military offensive in Lebanon is halted. Informal announcements, statements that the offensive will halt at some undefined future time, or statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli government, and the Israeli military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether Israeli military hostilities actually halt in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-announces-suspension-of-lebanon-offensive-by
| PurpleBlueGreenZebra | No | 6.06K |
| Lazybetting | No | 4.49K |
| elhopanessromtic | No | 3.27K |
| troim | No | 3K |
| Threadbare-Autoimmunity | No | 2.58K |
| Mellow-Hit | No | 2.16K |
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