Is Luigi Mangione YouTube channel real?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$443.7K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 6% on 10 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 10 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 6% on 10 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.1 points down, to 0.9% on 11 Dec 2024. $443.7K traded over the market's life.

27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 7:53 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 10 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Dec 2024	6.0%
1 Jan 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Minteamade	Yes	423.47
Bassmaker	Yes	200.4
gg5463	Yes	200
Kroesus	Yes	100

10 of 27 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On Dec 9 the YouTube channel @PepMangione posted a video titled "The Truth", stating "If you see this, I’m already under arrest." (see https://x.com/AFpost/status/1866229482719244591). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the https://www.youtube.com/@PepMangione YouTube channel is real, i.e. it is proven to be operated by Luigi Mangione or a person/system that he authorized. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution date is December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If there is no credible evidence linking Luigi Mangione to the YouTube channel by the resolution date, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.