
Resolved No on 19 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 65.5%. Yes opened at 53.5% on 23 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 28 daily closes on record from 23 May 2026 to 19 Jun 2026, the highest close was 53.5% on 23 May 2026 and the lowest 3.5% on 11 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 30.6% on 17 Jun 2026. $46.56K traded over the market's life.
64 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 23, 2:44 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 23 May 2026 – 19 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 May 2026 | 53.5% |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 34.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Somber-Ice | Yes | 2.39K |
| 23449 | Yes | 1.94K |
| JAMJAMJAM4 | Yes | 1.17K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-x-oman-strait-of-hormuz-agreement-by-june-15
| Yes |
| 529.93 |
| nzrod | Yes | 207.99 |
| Profitable-Loaf | Yes | 205.86 |
| Jcava5PCB | Yes | 199 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 196.87 |
| Kulijan | Yes | 150.72 |
| aenews2 | Yes | 132.76 |
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