Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 70%. Yes opened at 52% on 19 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2026 to 29 Mar 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 70% on 25 Mar 2026 and the lowest 16% on 23 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 66.5% on 22 Mar 2026. $714.22 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 8:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 19 Feb 2026 – 29 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2026 | 52.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 70.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hesure | No | 70 |
| 09F911029D74 | No | 66 |
| vger7 | No | 19.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a military strike against the U.S. military, inclusive of all U.S. military ships, planes, bases and other infrastructure, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iranian missile, drone, or other strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. Strikes on U.S. military unmanned aerial vehicles/projectiles and U.S. commercial/civilian ships will NOT count toward a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on the U.S. military by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S. and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-us-military-by-march-31
| No |
| 9.59 |
| Auric-Goldfinger | Yes | 7.69 |
| steveeev | No | 7.68 |
| rocketcrypto | No | 5 |
| Rapid Comet B74D | Yes | 0.21 |
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