Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 94.9%. Yes opened at 36% on 19 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2026 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 94.9% on 1 Mar 2026 and the lowest 27.5% on 25 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 65 points up, to 94.9% on 1 Mar 2026. $80.75K traded over the market's life.
36 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 4:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 19 Feb 2026 – 1 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2026 | 36.0% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 94.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| General-Faucet | No | 1.55K |
| ChetterHummin | No | 846.5 |
| Okayyyyy | No | 237.52 |
| LeoWright | No | 222.22 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Qatar is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Qatari territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-qatar-by-january-31
| 0xRocket666 | No | 200 |
| LEX101 | No | 113.31 |
| Bencef | No | 111.88 |
| 5atka | No | 103.99 |
| doomcat4208 | No | 101.77 |
| bjprolo | No | 100 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
