Analytics
Resolved Yes on 13 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 51%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 12 Jun 2025. Before it settled, the high was 51% on 13 Jun 2025 and the low 31.5% on 12 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 51% on 13 Jun 2025. $1.07M traded over the market's life.
51 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 15, 12:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 12 Jun 2025 – 13 Jun 2025, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Jun 2025 | 31.5% |
| 13 Jun 2025 | 51.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DeltaScript | No | 18.45K |
| Eclippy | No | 5K |
| BuyHighSellSober | No | 4.44K |
| Glwiseh | No | 3K |
| dpy1123 | No | 2.27K |
| Weighty-Highway | No | 2K |
| nobby | No | 1.68K |
| C0o | No | 1.66K |
| RATBAG | No | 1.24K |
| Gooble | No | 1.22K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate between June 11, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, maritime territory or any official Israeli embassy or consulate (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-israel-in-june
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