
Resolved Yes on 28 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 8.5%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 13 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 47 daily closes on record from 13 Jan 2026 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 63% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 3.9% on 27 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 39% on 16 Jan 2026. $5.01M traded over the market's life.
486 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 13 Jan 2026 – 28 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jan 2026 | 45.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 8.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wan123 | No | 74.91K |
| Helpful-Expectancy | No | 12.48K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 9.47K |
| bamesjond |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Israel is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-strike-on-israel-by
| No |
| 7.92K |
| wrtghsdfcdv | No | 7.92K |
| varenikywarior | No | 7.73K |
| PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN | No | 7.62K |
| lixiangqian | No | 7.49K |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | No | 7K |
| Svelte-Wonder | No | 5.93K |
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