Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Aug 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.1%. Yes opened at 33% on 7 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2024 to 10 Aug 2024, the highest close was 33% on 7 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.9% on 10 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 6.5% on 9 Aug 2024. $273.7K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 11, 5:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 7 Aug 2024 – 10 Aug 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2024 | 33.0% |
| 10 Aug 2024 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3.3 | Yes | 46.83K |
| DividedSkies | Yes | 1.62K |
| mng | Yes | 178.57 |
| Ill-Logo | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory between August 5 and August 9, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-military-response-by-friday
| 34f76d8926e290af0 | Yes | 94.37 |
| Poised-Combine | Yes | 40 |
| MilfYum | Yes | 10 |
| WilliamSmith | Yes | 6.63 |
| Indigo Voyager E113 | Yes | 1.65 |
| Complicated-Guess | No | 1.43 |
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