Analytics
Resolved No on 3 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 63% on 30 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 30 Apr 2025 to 3 May 2025, the highest close was 63% on 30 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 3 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 44 points down, to 19.5% on 1 May 2025. $68.22K traded over the market's life.
18 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 4, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 30 Apr 2025 – 3 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Apr 2025 | 63.0% |
| 3 May 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if India initiates an airstrike or missile strike on Pakistani soil, airspace, or maritime territory, or against any Pakistani embassies or consulates, between April 29 and May 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Indian military forces that impact Pakistani territory, airspace, or maritime assets. This includes, for example, an Indian airstrike on a site in Pakistan or an Indian missile landing on Pakistani territory. Actions such as artillery fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, sanctions, small arms fire, or purely diplomatic confrontations will not count toward resolution. The strike must be either officially acknowledged by the Indian government or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting. If the "Yes" resolution criteria are met before April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market may resolve early.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/india-military-strike-on-pakistan-by-friday
| wallstreetbetter | Yes | 16.67 |
| meno | Yes | 14.29 |
| A-little-old-lady-who | No | 10 |
| screebodeebo | No | 5.12 |
| Stilicho68 | Yes | 3.23 |
| AVAAL | No | 0.05 |
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