Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 96.5%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 15 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 15 Jul 2026 to 1 Sep 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 47.5% on 11 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 31 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 30 points down, to 16.5% on 16 Jul 2026. $1.19K traded over the market's life.
10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 6:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 15 Jul 2026 – 1 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2026 | 46.5% |
| 1 Sep 2026 | 3.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 881112 | Yes | 20 |
| Ethical-Bamboo | Yes | 14 |
| Ivory Quasar 70A8 | Yes | 14 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any Immigration and Customs Enforcement employee for their involvement in the shooting of Joan Sebastian Guerrero in Biddeford, Maine by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ice-agent-charged-in-maine-incident-by-august-31-20260714234138963
| Yes |
| 11 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| CineMa | Yes | 10 |
| tweetmaster | Yes | 7 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| gonnakilmyslf | Yes | 3 |
| J25525 | Yes | 2.22 |
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