Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 50% on 26 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 26 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 63.5% on 30 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 30 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 50.5% on 28 Mar 2026. $70.66K traded over the market's life.
70 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 3:50 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 26 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Mar 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris. Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/houthis-successfully-target-shipping-by-march-31
| theGodFather101 | Yes | 177.56 |
| skrivanek | Yes | 174.66 |
| VincitQviPatitvr | Yes | 158.06 |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 126.59 |
| warptrading | Yes | 118.79 |
| AshaEdgeX | Yes | 100 |
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