Analytics
Resolved No on 4 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 37% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 4 May 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 37% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 2 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 7.5% on 23 Apr 2026. $41.69K traded over the market's life.
64 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 5, 9:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 4 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 37.0% |
| 4 May 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Misty Voyager 68EE | Yes | 1.05K |
| Earnest-Twitter | Yes | 1.02K |
| Mongabc123 | Yes | 876.67 |
| Trtr2026 | Yes | 649.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Houthis initiate a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Houthi forces that physically impact land under Israeli control. Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution—regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/houthi-military-action-against-israel-by-348
| ODIUMX | Yes | 613.04 |
| Solid-Tax | Yes | 392.95 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 300 |
| ma99 | Yes | 199.99 |
| Gruesome-Pajamas | Yes | 143.34 |
| Bibiiiiiii | Yes | 142.86 |
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