Analytics
Yes is at 33.5%, down 16 points from 50% when the market opened on 19 Apr 2026.
Across the 189 daily closes on record from 19 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60.5% on 29 Apr 2026 and the lowest 21.5% on 5 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 32.5%; a month before, 28%. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 58% on 13 Jul 2026.
It is one of 8 markets under “Hotstuff FDV above ___ one day after launch?”.
$5.86K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $5.91K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 131 trades, $481.55 bought Yes and $1.36K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 356 shares; the largest No position is btcabal with 613. Ten wallets hold 97.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 189 points, 19 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 33.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| btcabal | No | 613.25 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 356.32 |
| timeistmoney | Yes | 140 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Hotstuff's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Hotstuff will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Hotstuff (https://x.com/tradehotstuff) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hotstuff-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
| cornishon2 |
| Yes |
| 136.03 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 91 |
| Piroop | No | 80.1 |
| HONESTHIPPO | No | 42.37 |
| apiwat | No | 40.81 |
| explorer221 | Yes | 28.34 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 23.36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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