Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 18 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, the highest close was 19% on 26 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.7% on 1 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 4.2% on 27 Sep 2024. $98.66K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 6:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 18 Sep 2024 – 1 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2024 | 6.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| deebbone | Yes | 2.19K |
| Gagamel69 | Yes | 347.08 |
| TakeThatBet | Yes | 15.87 |
| scrimple | No | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah personnel enter Israeli territory for combat operations between September 16 and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Israel territory includes any territory under Israeli control as of the creation of this market including the Golan Heights. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Hezbollah and Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hezbollah-enters-israel-in-september
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| SAMF | No | 0.02 |
| Barcide | No | 0.02 |
| BUBASIIK | Yes | 0.01 |
