Analytics
Resolved Yes on 17 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 92%. Yes opened at 79% on 27 Jan 2026. Before it settled, the high was 93% on 16 Feb 2026 and the low 35% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 51 points up, to 86% on 2 Feb 2026. $198.91K traded over the market's life.
69 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 19, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 22 points · 27 Jan 2026 – 17 Feb 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2026 | 79.0% |
| 17 Feb 2026 | 92.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| bumbay | No | 3.24K |
| Linslav | No | 2.04K |
| Heisq2511 | No | 1.83K |
| wmccc | No | 1.11K |
| Enormous-Phrasing | No | 1.04K |
| 40rd | No | 413.44 |
| Milky-Dome | No | 379.1 |
| phsr | No | 340 |
| ThePineapple | No | 309.61 |
| Accomplished-Canal | No | 278.13 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.20 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Grok 4.20 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Grok 4.20 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.20, or one that is recognized as a successor to Grok 4.1 similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1. Products labeled as Grok 4.12 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/grok-4pt20-released-by
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