Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 16, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$67.4K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 16, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 16 Aug 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.5%. Yes opened at 17.5% on 9 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 9 Jul 2025 to 16 Aug 2025, the highest close was 21.5% on 10 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 14 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 6.3% on 11 Jul 2025. $67.37K traded over the market's life.

34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 17, 8:53 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 9 Jul 2025 – 16 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Jul 2025	17.5%
16 Aug 2025	2.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
dffgdjkhfdkjdf	Yes	3K
ThePureGenius	Yes	1.16K
qspec	Yes	587.74
Incognebo	Yes	518.29

10 of 34 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any version of Grok-4 with a score greater than 40.00% by August 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.