Analytics
Yes is at 61%, up 11 points from 50% when the market opened on 23 Apr 2026.
The high was 95% on 4 Sep 2026 and the low 31.5% on 17 Jun 2026. A week ago Yes was at 79.7%; a month ago, 89.8%. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 45% on 28 Apr 2026.
$2.09K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.18K, with a 12.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 72 trades, $506.93 bought Yes and $586.36 bought No.
The largest Yes position is SusanWarrenHR with 428 shares; the largest No position is Athletic-Sender with 678. Ten wallets hold 83.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 76 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 18, 12:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 178 points, 23 Apr 2026 – 18 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 61.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic-Sender | No | 678.28 |
| SusanWarrenHR | Yes | 428.24 |
| Nadmi | Yes | 249.99 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/greta-thunberg-arrested-by-june-30
| Mojito9 |
| No |
| 119.99 |
| MonkeyBrains123 | No | 86.86 |
| zb8 | Yes | 86.77 |
| VolynMolfar | Yes | 60.7 |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 55 |
| onedimensionchess | Yes | 54 |
| aljarreau | No | 48.33 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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