Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 25% on 3 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 274 daily closes on record from 3 Apr 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 31 Dec 2024 and the lowest 19.5% on 4 Apr 2024. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 90% on 1 Nov 2024. $417.55K traded over the market's life.
521 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:12 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 274 points, 3 Apr 2024 – 1 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2024 | 25.0% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 86.71K |
| wayofthewind | Yes | 891.93 |
| Lunar Lynx BBA9 | No | 690.31 |
This is a market on the predicted announcement date of GPT-5.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/when-will-gpt-5-be-announced
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| JonSand | No | 390.44 |
| SilentShade324 | No | 120 |
| PolyReflex2 | No | 110 |
| henry_ | No | 106.54 |
| LuEE | Yes | 100 |
| FlamePhantom36 | Yes | 100 |
| Blissful-Visit | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
