Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 9% on 29 Aug 2024. Before it settled, the high was 12.5% on 4 Sep 2024 and the low 0.1% on 20 Dec 2024. $1.85M traded over the market's life.
203 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 11, 6:48 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 135 points · 29 Aug 2024 – 10 Jan 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2024 | 9.0% |
| 10 Jan 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 270.58K |
| Ceethereal | Yes | 10K |
| 0xheyi | Yes | 4.06K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of less than 1.22°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of less than 1.22°C for 2024 will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for 2024 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2024" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2024 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/global-heat-increase-2024
| Yes |
| 3.02K |
| Bimzz | Yes | 3K |
| Bodecker | Yes | 2.5K |
| 0xmeme | Yes | 2.14K |
| darklightcrypto | Yes | 2K |
| demidovadasha | Yes | 1.9K |
| Pelirrojo | Yes | 1.88K |
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