Analytics
Resolved Yes on 21 Oct 2026.
The last price read before settlement had Yes at 89%. Yes was at 93% at 21 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC, the earliest read in hand. Before it settled, across 3 price reads from 21 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC to 21 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC, the highest read was 93% on 21 Oct 2026, 06:00 UTC and the lowest 75.5% on 21 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. $1.02K traded over the market's life.
7 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 22, 9:34 PM UTC
6-hour closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 21 Oct, 06:00 UTC – 21 Oct, 18:00 UTC, chart shows 70%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 93.0% |
| 21 Oct, 18:00 UTC | 89.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| GuyFromTinder | No | 98 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| Hallo123 | No | 20 |
| romanew-1-new | No | 11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if GitHub.com experiences an incident with an impact classified as “critical” between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident. Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered. If an incident that began before 11:59 PM ET on the listed date remains unresolved at that time, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the listed date, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time. Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/github-com-critical-incident-byptptpt-20261020
| bjprolo | No | 10 |
| Istaroth | No | 0.86 |
| bZk0Uo | Yes | 0.3 |
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