Analytics
Resolved Yes on 16 Dec 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.1%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 9 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 9 Nov 2024 to 16 Dec 2024, the highest close was 99.6% on 13 Dec 2024 and the lowest 52.5% on 9 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 85.5% on 11 Nov 2024. $386.92K traded over the market's life.
85 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 17, 3:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 9 Nov 2024 – 16 Dec 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2024 | 52.5% |
| 16 Dec 2024 | 99.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| realeyesrealize | No | 7.94K |
| YungNordex | No | 5.34K |
| picklejeff | No | 4.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confidence vote is held in the German Bundestag between November 6 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as a confidence vote occurs, the process of which is outlined in Article 68 of the German Basic Law (Grundgesetz). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/germany-confidence-vote-in-2024
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| No |
| 3.11K |
| Winner78 | No | 2.91K |
| MichiW | No | 668.81 |
| Quixotic-Altar | No | 555.56 |
| chaika | No | 266.18 |
| Maxwell176 | No | 200 |
| Klaus0815 | No | 185.57 |
