What is the “Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Gemini 4.0 released by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 87.5¢ and No at 12.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 87.5% for Yes and 12.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to…

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($19.5K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($10.96K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 248 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 57.6% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 4, 11:30 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/gemini-4pt0-released-by-june-30-2026) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? Polymarket Odds

Market referencegemini-4pt0-released-by-october-31-2026Updated 1m ago

techActive

Closes Nov 1, 2026 UTCgeminiai-releases

Yes

87.5%

12.5%

Buy Yes 87.5¢Buy No 12.5¢

24h Volume

$19.5K

Liquidity

$11.0K

Closes

Nov 1, 2026 UTC

Yes price

87.5¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

87.5%

12.5%

24h volume

$19.5K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 87.5¢

Open in terminal$19.5K 24h vol

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

1m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

1.0%

Observed

1m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

87.5%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

248

Wallets

248

Top 10 share

58%

Yes / No shares

34.99K / 34.99K

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

204

Loaded notional

PricesPolymarket CLOB price history · daily closes · latest observation Oct 4, 11:32 AM UTC

Depth historyCheckSubscriber depth access is checked only when requested, keeping the public page fast.

Bucket	Close	Mid
Oct 4, 11:32 AM UTC	87.5%	87.5%
Oct 4, 12:00 AM UTC	84.5%	84.5%
Oct 3, 12:00 AM UTC	83.5%	83.5%

Gemini 4.0 released by...?

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Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Gemini 4.0 released by...?”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 87.5¢ and No at 12.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 87.5% for Yes and 12.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Nov 1, 2026 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to…
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($19.5K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($10.96K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Analytics

Bucket

Mid

Spread

Volume

Trades

Oct 4, 11:32 AM UTC

87.5%

Oct 4, 12:00 AM UTC

84.5%

Oct 3, 12:00 AM UTC

83.5%