Analytics
“Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of January 2026?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Gold (GC) above ___ end of January?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
This market resolved No on 31 Jan 2026. $24.37K traded over its life. The price history, the holders still on the books and the trade tape below are kept as the record of how the crowd priced the question while it was open.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 36 daily price points from Dec 27, 2025 UTC to Jan 31, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.1% and 78.0%); 39 wallets still holding shares after settlement, the largest ten holding 85.7% of the loaded shares; 169 recent public fills from 78 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of January 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during January on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolution source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gc-over-under-jan-2026
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 36 points · 27 Dec 2025 – 31 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 91geniusboy | Yes | 2.62K |
| acal | Yes | 1.2K |
| yangguang0511 | Yes |
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 1K |
| TENETENET | Yes | 500 |
| Winding-Lipid | Yes | 500 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 303 |
| Zizu | Yes | 300 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 244 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 220 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 208 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
