Analytics
Resolved Yes on 31 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 50% on 27 Dec 2025. Before it settled, the high was 99.9% on 31 Jan 2026 and the low 50% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 48 points up, to 98.6% on 16 Jan 2026. $4.1K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 12:23 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 27 Dec 2025 – 31 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2025 | 50.0% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| acal | No | 502 |
| TENETENET | No | 500 |
| Lesivv | No | 242.59 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 232 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of January 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during January on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolution source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.settlements.html
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/gc-over-under-jan-2026
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 229 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 218 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 101 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 66 |
| AsuraSmellsLikeASS | No | 50 |
| SUKAHLUHA | No | 30 |
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