Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 7 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 241 daily closes on record from 7 May 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 9.7% on 15 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 28 Dec 2025. $216.74K traded over the market's life.
105 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 241 points, 7 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 May 2025 | 7.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time between May 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-in-2025
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Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
