Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 14% on 6 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 148 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 1 Apr 2026, the highest close was 15.4% on 27 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.7 points up, to 15.4% on 27 Nov 2025. $29.28K traded over the market's life.
49 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 4:28 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 148 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 1 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 14.0% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| amonbet | Yes | 710.06 |
| michael123mr | Yes | 295.05 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
his market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-by-march-31
| memo4me | Yes | 200 |
| RoyCooperForVP | Yes | 199.99 |
| Vinc22 | Yes | 179.54 |
| LaCabraFernandez | Yes | 150 |
| Stiff-Venture | Yes | 117.68 |
| Dennfuzius | Yes | 104.17 |
| Noodlsoup | No | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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