Analytics
Resolved Yes on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 1.1%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 23 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 38 daily closes on record from 23 Jan 2026 to 1 Mar 2026, the highest close was 42.5% on 23 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 26% on 2 Feb 2026. $62.92K traded over the market's life.
43 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 4:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 38 points, 23 Jan 2026 – 1 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | 42.5% |
| 1 Mar 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Trashbag | No | 5K |
| generalVR | No | 1.73K |
| dotheoppositeofme | No | 310.33 |
| Spotted-Sisterinlaw | No | 272.37 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if French government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. French government forces refer to any active French military (including the French Maritime Gendarmerie), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to French forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a port controlled by France or another state confirmed to be cooperating with France in the seizure. Seizures conducted in coordination with allied forces will count as long as French government forces physically take part in the operation at the site of the seizure. Remote or intelligence-sharing support from French forces will not alone count. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/french-forces-seize-another-oil-tanker-by-feb-28
| Vox-Wallet | No | 244.07 |
| huanwohan | No | 214.27 |
| relationnuclearfertile | No | 141.94 |
| jiewolu | No | 123.87 |
| Violet Vector B233 | No | 110 |
| zhijiuwen | No | 99.14 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
