Four Trump Cabinet confirmations in January?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 28, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$60.7K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 28, 2025 UTC

Topic roomTrump and the White House

Where it stands

Resolved No on 28 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 47% on 20 Nov 2024. Before it settled, across the 70 daily closes on record from 20 Nov 2024 to 28 Jan 2025, the highest close was 47% on 20 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 10.5% on 21 Nov 2024. $60.72K traded over the market's life.

10 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 29, 2:29 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 20 Nov 2024 – 28 Jan 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
20 Nov 2024	47.0%
28 Jan 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	27.31K
flowersfrank	Yes	310.91
mccannbrian	Yes	148.57

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly 4 Trump Cabinet nominations are confirmed by the U.S. Senate by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A Cabinet position is defined as any of the heads of the 15 executive departments or a role formally designated as Cabinet-level by the President. Advisory roles will not qualify for this market. The resolution source for this market is information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/NominationsRejectedorWithdrawn.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.