Analytics
Yes is at 41%, down 34 points from 74.5% when the market opened on 3 Sep 2026.
Across the 50 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 91% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 41% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 69.5%; a month before, 82.5%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 91% on 2 Oct 2026.
It is one of 31 markets under “First snow of the 2026 season”.
$651.28 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $120.13, with a 56.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 26 trades, $201.49 bought Yes and $27.14 bought No.
The largest Yes position is sunnynotbunny with 77 shares; the largest No position is AJSV with 65.
Trading closes on 4 Dec 2026, 42 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 23, 2:00 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 50 points, 3 Sep 2026 – 23 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2026 | 74.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | 41.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sunnynotbunny | Yes | 77.22 |
| AJSV | No | 65.28 |
| Haradwaith | No | 60.1 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cincinnati, OH records any snowfall on any day between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Snowfall for Cincinnati, OH is measured only at station KCVG, which the National Weather Service reports as "CINCINNATI OH" in its Daily Climate Report. Observations from any other station or location do not count. Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window. The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KCVG (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York). Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall. The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KCVG, issued as product CLICVG. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLICVG.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/first-snow-2026
18 more markets, none above 64.5%.
| movyurei |
| Yes |
| 43.99 |
| hfv | Yes | 40 |
| youtube-trader | No | 37.84 |
| ayosussybenny | Yes | 20 |
| cacato | No | 20 |
| gfdgfvfvssdd | Yes | 2.01 |
| infoowl | Yes | 0.01 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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